Minutes:
Councillor Rhodri
Evans, Committee Chair, outlined the meeting procedure and welcomed the Leader
of the Council, Councillor Bryan Davies, Councillor Gareth Davies, Cabinet Member
for Finance and Procurement Services, Committee Members, the remaining Cabinet
Members, non-Committee Members and Officers to the meeting.
The Leader of the Council, Councillor Bryan
Davies, presented the report on the draft budget for 2023/2024 including an
updated multi-year capital programme, outlining that this is based on the WG
provisional settlement, and that the WG final settlement is due on the 28
February 2023.
The
Leader advised the Committee Members that the higher than expected Provisional
settlement increase from Welsh Government for 2023/2024 of 8.1% (on a cash
basis) is welcomed. This should ensure that for the 2023/2024 financial year,
services to residents in Ceredigion can be protected as much as possible,
whilst acknowledging this is still an extremely challenging Budget. Key points
from this report are as follows:
·
The cost
pressures being faced by the Council total an unprecedented £22m, equivalent to
a Ceredigion specific inflation factor of over 13%. This compares with general
inflation running at 10.5% (December 2022 CPI figure). A budget shortfall of
£12m therefore needs to be found from a combination of Budget Savings and
Council Tax increase considerations.
·
The Leader said
that the areas where cost pressures are being seen are generally not unique to
Ceredigion. There are recurring themes similar to those referenced in the
national press, which are affecting a range of public and private sector
organisations, as well as individual household finances. They range from energy
and fuel costs, to higher than projected Staff Pay awards, to contracts with
inflation linked clauses.
·
There is also a
proposed increase from the Mid & West Wales Fire Authority on their levy,
which is at a level not seen before. A 13% proposed increase in their Budget is
leading in turn to a significant cost pressure, in relative terms, on the
Council’s own budget.
·
Demands on Social
Care related budgets continue to increase, plus there is over £1.7m of funding
within the Provisional Settlement (1.5% of the 8.1% increase) that needs to be
passported to Externally Commissioned services in Ceredigion to ensure
registered Social Care workers continue to be paid at least the Real Living
Wage (which has risen from £9.90 to £10.90 per hour – a 10.1% increase).
·
Despite
operational challenges at times in some Services, Ceredigion County Council
continues to deliver high quality services that has been recognised by external
regulators. The Council is assessed by Audit Wales as remaining financially
stable, albeit recognising that financial challenges do lie ahead creating
ongoing financial risks, which is not unique to Ceredigion.
·
The current
2022/2023 Band D Council Tax level in Ceredigion (for all components) is
£1,777.27 which is in line with on the average Band D Council Tax in Wales at
£1,777.18. Average Council Tax levels in Wales are also considerably lower than
the equivalent average for English Unitary Authorities of £2,034 for 2022/2023.
The County Council element of the current 2022/2023 Band D Council Tax is
currently £1,447.90.
·
The Leader stated
that he, and the Cabinet are, as are all Councillors, acutely aware of the
impact that the cost of living is having on household personal finances. It is
proposed that Council Tax increases for 2023/2024 are kept below the current
rate of inflation and limited to no more than an additional £10.02 per month
for the County Council element.
·
The Leader and
the Cabinet’s preferred Council Tax increase option is a 7.3% proposed Council
Tax increase, which includes a 1.3% element in relation to the proposed Fire
Authority levy increase and which equates to an additional £8.81 per month for
the County Council element.
The
Leader stressed that there are challenging and difficult times ahead - with an
indicative Welsh Government Settlement average increase for 2024/2025 of only
+3.1%. The extent of the challenge will be focussed on as part of presenting an
updated Medium Term Financial Strategy in due course. One of the initial
guiding principles from the new political administration was (as far as
possible) to avoid cuts in Service provision, to minimise Redundancies and to
not go down a salami slicing savings route and to continue to take a corporate
and transformational approach to medium term savings.
Given
the scale of the financial challenge there is a limit to how far all aspects of
this approach can be achieved in full and on Delegated School Budgets proactive
decisions will be needed by individual Schools as their level of School
Balances and available grant funding declines.
Councillor Gareth
Davies, Cabinet Member for
Finance and Procurement Services, referred to the key outcomes for Ceredigion from the
23/24 Provisional Settlement shown on page 3 of 42 of the report, stating that
the WG Aggregate External Finance (AEF) allocated to Ceredigion is £129.050m
for 2023/24 compared with £119.419m for 2022/23. This is a cash increase of
£9.6m (8.1%) with Ceredigion ranked 9th.
He also referred to the Fire Authority Levy
stating that following dialogue with Mid & West Wales Fire Authority, the
relevant sum for Ceredigion would be an increase of £519k under their 13%
Budget Option, which equates to a 1.3% Council Tax increase on a Band D
property. There is also an additional
Fire related grant of £143k that is to be transferred into the WG Final
Settlement and this sum is therefore built into the Budget workings and will
need to be passported through to the Fire Levy budget heading to ensure this
element remains cost neutral. It is disappointing that this change is being
done late in the Budget process with no prior consultation.
Ceredigion’s Settlement outcome reflects a
range of factors, but the main driver is the overall level of additional
funding that Welsh Government have put into the Settlement. Other pertinent
factors to note relate to Population data changes which account for a £54k
increase and pupil numbers data changes which account for a £70k decrease.
Councillor Davies stated that the gain on
population could have been higher (c£350k) as the 2021 Census recorded the
Ceredigion population as 71,468, whereas the population dataset used for the
2023/2024 Settlement was a combined average of the 2021 Census population data
and the 2018 based population projections for 2023 which is 71,188. In
addition, at least the previous 2 Settlements (2021/2022 & 2022/2023) have
used understated population data.
On pupil numbers, Nursery & Primary numbers
have declined by 2.7% to 4,951, whereas Secondary numbers (years 7-11) have
increased by 2.5% to 3,599. This reflects a national trend of increasing
Secondary pupil numbers and decreasing Nursery & Primary pupil numbers, when
comparing data used for 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 Settlements.
£70m across Wales was included in the
Settlement for the continuation of WG’s commitment to ensure registered Social
Care Workers in Wales are paid at least the level of the Real Living Wage which
is now rising to £10.90 per hour.
Duncan Hall,
Corporate Lead Officer, Finance and Procurement, then provided a brief update
on the current situation and in particular the Authority’s Cost pressures. Detailed iterative work has been carried out to
identify and assess the unavoidable cost pressures faced by all Services, plus
the aspects considered as corporate items. This work has identified c£22m of
cost pressures, which equates to 13.4% of the 2022/2023 Budget. This level of
cost pressures is extraordinary and exceeds the £13m seen in the 2022/2023
budget. Prior to COVID and the current high levels of inflation in the UK
economy, cost pressures were typically around £8m and c.6% of net budget. He proceeded to give an overview of the Cost
Pressures that are affecting all services as well as the items that are treated
as Corporate in nature and the saving in the Employers Pension Fund
Contribution rate which benefits all Services.
The relevant Cabinet Member presented the information relevant to their
Service Area.
Committee Members considered the Cost
Pressures for those service areas that are within the Committee’s remit;
namely:
·
Democratic Services
·
People and Organisation
·
Policy, Performance & Public
Protection (Policy & Performance elements only)
·
Leadership Group
·
Finance and Procurement
·
Economy and Regeneration
·
Customer Contact
·
Legal and Governance
And;
Committee Members considered the proposed
Fees and Charges changes under the Committee’s remit in Appendix C, pages 51 to
57, of 57 of the agenda papers.
Members were then given an opportunity to ask
questions which were answered in turn by the Leader, the Cabinet Member or the
relevant Officer. Main points arising as
follows:
Recommendations:
The Committee agreed that:
1.
It had considered the overall Budget position
as shown in the Budget report in Enclosure A.
2.
It
had considered the relevant elements of the Budget Cost pressures falling under this Scrutiny Committee.
3.
It
had considered the relevant elements of the Budget Savings proposals falling
under this
Scrutiny Committee.
4.
It
had considered the relevant elements of the Fees & Charges
proposals falling under this Scrutiny Committee.
5. The majority of Committee Members voted in
favour of a 7.3% increase for Council Tax levels. The Committee is therefore recommending an
increase of 7.3% in Council Tax for 2023/2024, which is option 3b) of the
recommendations, as follows:
3b) A 7.3% Council Tax increase (including 1.3%
in relation to the proposed Fire Authority Levy increase) and a 23/24 Budget
requirement of £180.101m).
Supporting documents: